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To watch: the possibility that Mr Sunak could call the general election for Thursday 2 May 2024, coinciding with the final set of local elections of this parliament. Climate change policies could be key election campaign themes. 2024 is still a very long way away (it is now October 2021 as I write this). Things can change very quickly in politics, and two and a half years is an eternity. But right now I would say that the Labour Party definitely has a chance to win the next election, but not a great one. So, the Labour Party definitely has a mountain to climb. Let’s sift through the data and see if we can find some things to give Keir Starmer some optimism: Where does that leave us? Well, let’s ask our good friends and impartial assessors of odds – the bookmakers.[3] They currently put the Labour Party at 19:10 (or roughly 2:1 – around 33% mathematically) to form a majority government. They have the Tories at 1:2 (or around 66% mathematically). Those odds will add up to more than 100% when you factor in other parties and the chance of a hung Parliament because the bookies need to set odds where they make a profit. But if you take a broad assessment – they think Labour’s chances are around half what the Conservative’s chances are.