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I’ve talked about the net favorability rating just above. Want to guess what Obama’s was at this stage in his presidency? +2.7. I think we should at the very least be able to agree that there is a big difference between + 2.7 and -17.0. If my math serves me right, Biden is running about 19.7 points behind where Obama was at this point. Honest question: how do people think Obama would have fared in 2012 if his approval ratings had been 20 points worse than they were? What’s more, Obama was actually underestimated by the 2012 polling. Does anyone have a persuasive theory of why the polling numbers in 2024 would be underestimating Biden? They certainly didn’t in 2020. What fundamental change has happened that this should be so different now?

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